New poll gives Olivia Chow commanding lead in 2026 mayoral race

Incumbent Toronto Mayor Olivia Chow would command a strong lead over her challengers if she chooses to run for re-election, a new poll shows, as John Tory’s departure reshapes October’s elections.

A new poll from Liaison Strategies found Chow had an 18-point lead over Coun. Brad Bradford, who was ahead of Premier Doug Ford’s nephew, Michael Ford.

The poll was conducted after former mayor Tory confirmed he would not run to lead the city again. Chow has not yet announced if she will run or not.

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David Valentin, principal at Liaison, said Tory’s decision had reshaped the race.

“First, the undecided number has jumped seven points, from 10 per cent to 17 per cent,” he explained, adding it had pushed up both Chow and Bradford’s overall ratings.

The topline numbers have Chow at 44 per cent, Bradford at 26 per cent and Michael Ford, who has said he is considering a run, at 16 per cent.

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The poll also shows Chow’s approval rating increasing by three points, with 50 per cent of Torontonians saying the city is moving in the “right direction” under her leadership.

“So horse race aside, some of the other indicators are positive right now,” Valentin said.

The election for Toronto’s mayor and councillors will be held in October.